Hyperliquid runs ~70% of all onchain perpetual futures volume, hosts the largest live token buyback program in crypto, and is layering tokenized equity perps and prediction markets on top of a perp engine doing $6.34B in average daily volume. This report builds a full valuation from the ground up using Allium onchain data, public-market exchange comps from COIN to CME, and a blended valuation framework producing a $78 base, $190 bull, and $30 bear 12-month target, with a probability-weighted target of $94.

The core questions this report answers:

• What does Hyperliquid actually earn, and how durable is that fee stream?
• How does the ~$825M cumulative buyback program affect per-token value?
• What multiple does HYPE deserve relative to COIN, HOOD, CME, and other exchange businesses?
• Is the market overpricing future dilution?
• How large could HIP3 and HIP4 become over the next cycle?

For hedge funds, trading desks, and institutional allocators evaluating HYPE as a long-duration position in onchain financial infrastructure. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

By Elton Shehdula, Research Lead @Allium

What's inside:

1. OVERWEIGHT rating with a $94 probability-weighted 12-month target versus spot at $44.19 on May 9, 2026.
2. PPlatform snapshot: $10.78B market cap, $6.34B average daily volume, and $609M annualized fees at 17.7x EV/Fees.
3. The Assistance Fund: ~$825M cumulative buybacks since March 2025, ~24M HYPE retired, and a 5.5% buyback yield.
4. Supply and dilution analysis: 244M Allium-derived circulating supply today and why observed contributor distributions materially diverge from aggregator-implied unlock schedules.
5. Competitive positioning across perp DEXs, including HLP, builder codes, and Hyperliquid’s captive USDC liquidity design.
6. HIP3 and HIP4 optionality: tokenized equity perps already represent ~34% of platform volume, while prediction markets introduce a new long-term revenue vertical.
7. Two-method valuation framework blending buyback-driven intrinsic value analysis with public-market and onchain comparables including COIN, HOOD, CME, ICE, NDAQ, GMX, JUP, UNI, and SOL.‍
8. Full risk framework covering regulatory pressure, dilution acceleration, HLP stress events, stablecoin risk, and macro sensitivity.