OpenAI and Anthropic are the two biggest IPOs on the horizon, and neither trades publicly. This report maps the onchain markets that already price them. Spot tokens on Solana claim shares through an SPV. Perpetual futures on Lighter quote each company's valuation without claiming the shares. Polymarket and Kalshi price the expected timing and valuation of the IPOs. The report explains what exposure each contract provides.

The report then follows trading after May 13, when both companies rejected unauthorized share transfers. Spot tokens depended on recognition of those transfers. Perpetuals and prediction markets did not. The data shows how spot-token prices and volume responded, which products gained activity, and where trading settled.

It next tests whether thin onchain markets can provide useful valuation signals. The OpenAI and Anthropic perpetual markets are compared with the terms of their next funding rounds. Those prices formed on volumes near $100,000 a day but anticipated terms that became public later.

The final sections price the IPOs themselves. Polymarket's listing markets and Kalshi's confirmation markets provide a market-implied calendar for both companies. SpaceX provides the historical comparison. Its pre-IPO market moved from $77,000 a day to $1.4 billion when the listing became official. Figures come from Allium onchain data using a mid-July snapshot. Kalshi ladder prices are bid-ask midpoints from Kalshi's public market data.

By Olivia Denk, Research @Allium
Elton Shehdula, Head of Research @Allium