US-linked wallets are the biggest political crowd on Polymarket despite being geoblocked
What onchain prediction markets reveal about what US political traders trade, and whether being close to the story pays.
Polymarket blocks US users by IP, yet US wallets are its biggest national political crowd by a wide margin. Allium ties wallets to countries by onchain behavior, not IP. A look at what US traders bet on and whether proximity to the story pays.
Polymarket cannot legally serve US users and blocks them by IP. Yet over the past year US traders have been its biggest national political crowd by a wide margin, among the roughly 6% Allium can tie to a country.
By contracts traded the US is the single biggest political market of any country. But once those markets resolve it picks winners no better than anyone, so the pattern reads as broad speculation, although insider activity can't be ruled out.
Informational only. Not investment advice.
By Olivia Denk, Research @Allium / Elton Shehdula, Head of Research @Allium
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