By Allium Research

By the time SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on June 12, its valuation had been trading in public for nearly seven months across three onchain venues: Ventuals, a Hyperliquid perp quoting the valuation directly since November 20,trade.xyz, a per-share perp that did $799M in its first 26 days and carries 98% of the daily volume, and a 16-strike Polymarket ladder pricing the odds of every first-day close from $1T to $4T since April 27.

This report tracks all three from Ventuals' $0.44T opening print to IPO eve, through the June 3 SEC filing that fixed the deal at $135 a share and grew the share count from 11.87B to 13.08B, a 10% jump that repriced every per-share valuation overnight, half from 639M newly issued shares and half from employee options that the post-offering count finally includes.

The venues started far apart and finished on top of each other. Ventuals needed six months to grind from $0.44T to $2T; Polymarket arrived in late April already saying $2.06T; trade.xyz launched at a $150 reference on May 17 and closed its first day 44% higher at $216 a share. By IPO eve the three sat within 4% of one another, between $2.17T and $2.26T, 22% to 28% above the $1.77T offer, and listing day brought the biggest activity yet: $308M traded on trade.xyz before the opening cross, $98M of it in the first hour after US markets opened.

The crowd is confident but not euphoric: two days before listing, Polymarket gave 62% odds that SpaceX closes its first day above $2T and only 5% above $3T, an implied median of $2.1T that the deeper perp money never strayed far from. Kalshi, often assumed to be a fourth venue in this trade, prices only whether and when the IPO happens, never how much, so the full onchain read on SpaceX's worth rests on the three venues mapped here.

Informational only. Not investment advice.

by Olivia Denk and Elton Shehdula