Polymarket and Kalshi now predict future GPU rental prices
A new way for AI companies to plan what compute will cost them, and a new signal on GPU prices for investors.
GPU rental prices now trade months ahead across Kalshi and Polymarket, with both markets settling against Ornn, the index that tracks live GPU rental prices. This report examines what traders expect across Nvidia's main AI chips, how the two venues work, and whether their prices provide useful signals for future compute costs. By Olivia Denk, Research @Allium; Elton Shehdula, Head of Research @Allium
AI companies rent GPU capacity by the hour, and those rental rates have moved sharply enough to change the cost of a large training run. Kalshi and Polymarket now run prediction markets on where those rates are heading. Both settle against the same index, Ornn, which tracks live GPU rental prices.
The report compares what traders expect across the main chips and where the two venues disagree. It then tests whether the early markets are predicting final rental rates or mainly following today's prices, compares trading activity across the venues and examines what would need to change before these markets could support a substantial hedge. Figures come from Allium data and the Ornn index, queried in late July 2026.
Informational only. Not investment advice.
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